New Trade Statistics – What Do They Signify?

– Part II

At the request of eBay, Neuwirth Research, Inc. conducted a survey of two thousand individuals who bought online (on and off eBay) and offline between July 21st and August 7th, 2005.  Laurence Toney, head of eBay’s Collectibles Division, presented some preliminary results of that survey to members of the antiques and collectibles industry and press at two summits held in San Jose in September.  I was privileged to attend both. 

Before talking about the results, it is important to understand that eBay’s Collectibles Division encompasses antiques, coins, collectibles, desirables (also known as contemporary/modern collectibles), and stamps.  Toys, old and new, are part of eBay’s Toy Division.  This mixture of current retail sale (new desirables and toys) with secondary market (antiques, coins, collectibles, and stamps) sale data skews the data and requires careful interpretation.  Fortunately, it is possible to break down the data into subcategories. 

Demographic profiles by item purchased were presented for five subcategories—antique furnishings, coins, comics, sports memorabilia, and toys.  The average mean age for comic collectors was 40, sports memorabilia 44, toys 45, antique furnishings 48, and coins 53.  For several years, I have been writing about the graying of collecting categories, i.e., a noticeable increase in the average age of collectors.  While not always true, a higher average age means that the category is having trouble replacing old buyers who drop out with new buyers.  This certainly is true in the area of coins.  One might argue that the antique furnishings mean age is high because individuals have to reach a certain income level to afford antiques.  I remain convinced that younger buyers are focusing their collecting interests elsewhere and that the low- and middle-end antiques market is aging significantly and not always gracefully. 

When does one begin collecting?  Since I view collecting as a natural act, I believe collecting begins at a very young age.  The demographics clearly indicate that collecting is an adult occupation.  The question needs to be rephrased.  When do individual begin to formally collect, i.e., collect with a reason and purpose in mind?  Although there are exceptions to the rule, this occurs under the best of circumstances when someone is in their late twenties or early thirties.  Most individuals do not formally collect during their time in high school and college or when first starting a family.  Their interest and funds are focused elsewhere. 

Collecting is sexist.  I would be hard pressed to name a collecting category where there is an equal number of male and female collectors.  Most collecting categories are dominated by one sex or the other.  Given this, the gender demographics for the five categories proved most interesting—comics 65% male, coins 60% male, sports memorabilia 57% male, toys 46% male, and antique furnishings 39% male. 

Alarm bells went off in my mind the minute I saw these numbers.  The percentages are far too low in every category.  My gut tells me that correct percentages are: coins 90% plus male, comics 85% male, toys 80% male, sports memorabilia 70% plus male, and antique furnishings 55 to 60% male.  These percentages are based upon my field observations at auctions, flea markets, antiques malls, and antique shows.  If I am wrong, there are far more female collectors out there than I realized. 

I can explain the toy percentage error.  The results most likely are skewed by the inclusion of new product, purchased by females as gifts for their children, and dolls.  While dolls are technically toys, the collecting community feels otherwise.  Dolls and toys are two separate categories.  When I did the research for my Collectors’ Guide to Toys, Games, and Puzzles (Wallace Homestead, 1991), I carefully studied the market based on the categories that appear in a general antiques and collectibles toy price guide.  My results indicated a market split 85% male and 15% female.  While these numbers may have shifted slightly, there is no way the number of females is greater than the number of males in the traditional secondary toy market. 

The income demographics were as follows: $58,000 for coins, $61,000 for comics, $67,000 for sports memorabilia, $70,000 for toys, and $70,000 for antique furnishings.  Clearly, one needs money to collect.  The traditional view is that collecting is driven by discretionary income.  Even today when more items are purchased for decorating than collecting purposes, discretionary income apparently remains a factor. 

The low income demographic for coins appears to be promising news for the coin community.  It runs counter to the mean age statistic.  I strongly suspect the current collecting craze for State quarters may explain the difference.  The long-term question is whether or not the coin collecting community can capture the State quarter collectors and expand their interest into other parts of the hobby. 

The identical income demographics for toys and antiques furnishings is fascinating.  If the toy number includes the purchase of modern electronic video game equipment and cartridges, then it is understandable.  I recently purchased a video game disk as a birthday present for a seven year old.  I still am reeling from having to pay $49.99 for a plastic disk worth only a few pennies.  The nostalgia purchase of one’s favorite childhood toy, governed by an “I want it now and do not care what I have to pay for it” mentality, also might be a factor. 

How educated are collectors?  EBay’s demographic profile produced these results—39% of coin collectors, 47% of comic and sports memorabilia collectors, 48% of antique furnishing, and 49% of toy collectors were college graduates.  These numbers are far higher than any projections I would have made and certainly not in the order I would have predicted.  I plan to field test these results.  The “blue collar” factor is far too low.  Since the survey was based on offline as well as online sales, computer access should not skew the numbers. 

As mentioned previously, the eBay survey included online (on and off eBay) and offline buyers, labeled collectively as “Collectibles Universe US,” and combined the sale of new product in the collectibles area with objects found in the traditional marketplace. In looking at what motivated members of the Collectibles Universe US to buy collectibles, the survey revealed “an item’s appearance, cost, and uniqueness are key triggers when considering a collectibles purchase.” 

I have selected the statistics for those reasons which I feel apply heavily to the secondary market.  The following percentages represent (a) always/frequently an important reason and (b) sometimes an important reason: (1) object’s appearance, 66% and 21%; (2) good bargain, 65% and 24%; (3) build a collection, 64% and 21%; (4) emotional connection with item, 45% and 29%; (5) decorate the home, 44% and 27%; (6) objects investment value, 41% and 31%; and (7) occurrence of event or trend, 21% and 27%. 

Finding an object’s appearance tops the list comes as no surprise.  Even though desirability has replaced condition as the number one pricing consideration, condition remains a critical factor.  Today’s collectors and buyers want objects “room (or display) ready.”  They have little interest in investing their time and money in restoration. 

In a market dominated by the desire to achieve “book” price, i.e., the maximum retail price possible, the importance of offering goods at bargain prices has been lost.  One need only visit a modern shopping mall to understand that the American consumer is bargain conscious.  It is bargain prices or the possibility of bargain prices that is driving buyers to eBay and other Internet sites. 

Note that building a collection ranked higher than decorating the home and buying an object as an investment.  This surprised me.  I have long argued that more collectibles are sold today for decorating rather than collecting purposes.  Obviously, I plan to take another look at this. 

The good news is that collecting is alive and well in the twenty-first century.  There are plenty of collectors in the collecting universe.  The challenge remains to convince the online collectors to check out the offline opportunities. 

The same statistical data often leads to different interpretations.  I am certain that some of my interpretations differ from those of the eBay staff.  Yours may as well. 

Rinker Enterprises and Harry L. Rinker are on the Internet.  Check out www.harryrinker.com.

HOW TO THINK LIKE A COLLECTOR (Emmis Books, 2005; $14.95), Harry’s new book, is available at your favorite bookstore and via www.harryrinker.com.
 

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